Tuesday, December 7

An Iraq Lesson for the Reality Based Chuckleheads

While reading this post by Wretchard of Belmont Club I happened on a gaping fallacy in the assumptions made by the left. It is an assumed truth by the denizens of the "reality based community" that as our forces in Iraq fight insurgents, every casualty inflicted is a breeding ground for ever increasing numbers of righteous warriors to oppose us. Every civilian death is another family grieving and hating the US.

However, when most of those civilian deaths come at the hands of the insurgents, who will they hate? Us, who are fighting with the Iraqis or the Sunni insurgents? What they are neglecting to notice is that the insurgents by and large are either foreigners and of the Sunni Arab clan (about a 20% minority). These insurgents (themselves a minority amongst the Sunni), having early discovered that attacking Marines is a career ending move, have been largely concentrating their efforts on attacking their fellow Kurdish and Shia Iraqi's. Let us face facts, our killing of Iraqi insurgents who are in the process of terrorizing fellow Iraqi's is not going to "breed recuits" for the insurgency for the insurgency is quickly losing its legitimacy by attacking the wrong parties. This casts our forces in a very different light. The Sunni majority is (very effectively) knitting the Kurdish and Shia cause with our own. And to borrow the "reality based logic" is recruiting a following for our cause for us. This is why the Sunni insurgency itself is becoming less and less of a force amongst the Sunni minority, who realize that continuing to play a losing hand will not grant them dividends for the future.

The coalition forces, far from being cast as the oppressors are increasingly seen (correctly) as a force for good. This will go a long way to build up good press for us. And this amongst a people we are reminded have long memories. For example we are told they still harbor resentment over the outcome of 11th century Frankish/Arabic engagments in Spain.