Friday, October 22

Two possible futures

What might come 2005-8 given the outcome of Nov 2. (my predictions):

Bush wins:
  • Iraq will calm down over the next 4 years. Troop levels will drop below 50-25k by the end of his term. The left wingnuts won't admit they were wrong (they never do). However, for most of that time, the media will continue to sing out loud and clear emphasizing everything that goes wrong.
  • Iran's mullah's will be overthrown by their own people.
  • As happened in Hong-Kong and China, capitalism will begin its inexorable march across the middle east.
  • Bush as a lame duck may be able to push some real Social Security reforms through the system. But real reform will evade us, because Washington still hasn't cottoned onto the problem yet.
  • Three Supremes will retire.

Kerry wins:
  • He will arrive with a mandate of "I'm not Bush", which will buy him zero political clout in Washington.
  • Gridlock will commence bigtime with a Repub Senate and House.
  • Supremes retire, but the furor over replacements will cause us to forget what the word "Borked" meant.
  • Kerry will be so bad that he may become the first sitting president to lose his parties nominations for re-election.
  • I can't tell if he'll stick it out in Iraq. My "gut" as he puts it, tells me he won't. The middle-east will remain a bleeding sore for the world to bear.